Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe

Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 16
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9798400261367
ISBN-13 :
Rating : 4/5 ( Downloads)

Book Synopsis Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe by : Mr. Serhan Cevik

Download or read book Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-08 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Households across Europe are struggling with a double crisis—the worst inflation shock since the World War II and a sudden correction in house prices. There is a rich literature on how housing price cycles affect consumer spending, finding mixed results with a wide range of consumption responses to changes in housing wealth. In this paper, using quarterly data on 20 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2023, we analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation-adjusted housing wealth and consumer spending and obtain statistically significant and economically intuitive results. Household consumption responds positively and swiftly to changes in real house prices and gross disposable income as expected. Using the estimated coefficients, we can deduce that the average quarter-on-quarter decline of -1.96 percent in real house prices in the first quarter of 2023 in Europe could dampen consumer spending by about -0.51 percentage points in real terms on a cumulative basis over a horizon of eight quarters.


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