Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time
Author | : Anton Cheremukhin |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2013 |
ISBN-10 | : UCR:31210023708900 |
ISBN-13 | : |
Rating | : 4/5 ( Downloads) |
Download or read book Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time written by Anton Cheremukhin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.